We apply an Error-In-Variables Integrated Gaussian Process (EIV-IGP) model 36 to quantify magnitudes and rates of RSL change through time and assess and discuss paleogeographic changes across the Sunda Shelf in response to RSL change using a GIA model 37, 38. This region is important because of the availability of detailed RSL datasets spanning the LGM (~21.5 kyr BP) through the last deglacial transition (LDT, ~18–11 kyr BP) 26, 30, Holocene (~11 kyr BP) 31 and present instrumental period (20th and 21st century) 15, 32 that are not unduly affected by vertical land motion processes 33, 34, 35.
Here we present a synthesis of the evolution of RSL in equatorial Southeast Asia combining geological reconstructions and instrumental records of RSL change from the Sunda Shelf and Singapore. Understanding the timing, magnitude and driving processes of past RSL changes provides a useful background to contextualise sea-level projections 12 that is important in the context of effective coastal risk management strategies for emerging contingencies 5, 29.
These reconstructions have been central to our understanding of global mean sea level (GMSL), determine ice-volume changes and constrain geophysical models of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process 19, 28. Geological reconstructions from equatorial and tropical latitudes have provided detailed RSL histories since the last glacial maximum (LGM) ~ 26 thousand years (kyr) to ~19 kyr before present (BP) 24, 25, 26, 27. Both geological reconstructions and instrumental records, however, share fundamental challenges in understanding spatial and temporal variability driven by processes that cause regional sea level to deviate from the global mean 11, 13, 22, 23. Reconstructions of RSL change based on geological proxies can provide complementary archives, demonstrating the longer-term response of sea level over centuries to millennia to a wider range of climate forcing mechanisms, unforced climate variability, and boundary conditions 12, 18, 19, 20, 21. This is especially true in Singapore, where near-complete instrumental records only began in the early 1970s (Fig. Most instrumental sea-level records, however, are temporally limited to the mid-to-late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries 14, 15 and capture a sea-level/climate relationship during which anthropogenic forcing dominates 4, 16, 17.
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